A Prediction for Scotland


This may well be the end game. Looking at the situation we now find ourselves in with regard to London and the EU I would like to make a prediction. There are moving parts, of course, so nothing is set in stone. Still, it is well worth considering.

Nicola Sturgeon has fired the starting gun for Scotland’s second independence referendum. Faced with the imminent annihilation of the Scottish economy as a result of Britain’s idiotic decision to take the hard Brexit route out of Europe, the First Minister – whose first duty is to the welfare of the people of Scotland – has no option but to part company with London. Yet Theresa May has made it clear that, under no circumstances, will the Westminster government sign off on another referendum. London is sticking to the “once in a generation” line on Scotland, but it has become obvious that – in ostracising ourselves from Europe – this generation may well be the last, for quite some considerable time, capable of making this decision to protect ourselves and our futures.

Brexit has fundamentally altered the constitutional question in Scotland. Britain is an import economy, and already we are feeling the impact of the currency markets’ reaction to Mrs. May’s hard-line posturing on Europe. Prices are going up in the supermarkets and some goods are being removed from the shelves. Sterling’s collapse against the euro and the dollar – which is likely to result in a new normal – together with the likelihood of trade tariffs, has a number of predictable outcomes. The cost of living for ordinary people will increase sharply, business and trade will become more difficult, and unemployment will rise. Following England out of Europe will be disastrous for the economy of Scotland, and this is not a matter of opinion.


Independence is now a question of survival, and everyone – including the UK’s mainstream media – has come to see this as a matter of fact. Sadly, for the moment, the people of England have no means of escaping this catastrophe, but we in Scotland do. We must leave the United Kingdom.

The bottom line is that the Scottish government does not need the permission of Westminster to hold another referendum. Never in the history of international politics has a nation required permission from its colonial master to assert its independence. Neither does Scotland now. We do not even need the recognition of London to be a recognised sovereign and independent state – all any state requires, under international custom and law, is the recognition of other states. The Scottish government appears to be aware of this and it now making some clever moves.

Herein below is the description of the scenario in which Scotland finds itself in relation to Westminster and Brussels, and a prediction as to how this may play out to secure Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom before the end of the Brexit negotiations.

Edinburgh has been informed by London that it will have neither a seat at the negotiating table with the European Union nor another independence referendum. This presents the Scottish government with a choice. It can obey the diktats of Westminster and pull its neck in and prepare for the consequences of Brexit, or it can act to protect the interests of Scotland by holding a referendum regardless and finding a back door to the EU side of the negotiating table.


From what we have heard the First Minister say during the SNP conference last week it would appear that we are going to take the second option, and that the wheels are already turning to ensure the success of those two components. Under the regulations imposed by the British government Scotland has no foreign policy, and cannot therefore treat with other states. We don’t have embassies. Well, we don’t have embassies yet. But that is just about to change.

Shortly Scotland will have a “permanent trade mission to Berlin (wink wink)” manned by a Scottish government staff that will – during the Brexit talks – have the ear of the most powerful players in the European Union. No one is expecting favours from Berlin or the EU. The simple truth – as we all know – is that Europe stands to gain as much as Scotland from our continued membership of the EU.


With Scotland’s interests being defended against the wiles of Westminster by our allies in Europe we are free to hold a referendum on independence. Of course the outcome of this will not be recognised by London, but it doesn’t need to be. All that we need is for that outcome to be recognised by Germany and the rest of the European Union – that is international recognition.

Once Brexit is finalised and England finally closes its accounts on the continent, Scotland will – provided we secure a vote for independence – be a recognised, free, and sovereign state, and a member of the EU. What can the London government do? Well, it can’t send in the troops as it did in the north of Ireland. That was an “internal matter.” It would be check and mate for Westminster – London claiming control of Scotland at that point would be like Turkey laying claim to Greece.


The Butterfly Rebellion
Jason Michael
Ayrshire, Scotland

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3 thoughts on “A Prediction for Scotland

  1. This is SNP propaganda. Scotland doesn’t need the EU, the EU needs Scotland. And what’s more important to Nicola and SNP, Brexit or the Rigged Referendum? Here is a prediction for you, Scotland gets independence, the Scottish Government rig a referendum for remaining in the EU and our sovereignty is sold down the Thames and across the Channel. #AyeUDI

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    • Kevin – Thanks for the comment. I do not work or write for the SNP. You may not agree with me, and that is fair enough, but I am not a propagandist for any political party.

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